Hedgerow North Carolina Medical Cannabis Market Forecast: $180M Annualized Revenue by End of Year One, $650M Annual Maturity

May 24, 2023

Nearly $65m in Annual Tax Revenues Expected

HedgeRow Analysis released highlights of their North Carolina medical cannabis market forecast showing $180m annualized revenue by the end of year one, growing to an estimated $650 annual medical market. These estimated cannabis sales would provide nearly $65 million in tax revenues to the state of North Carolina at market maturity.

“North Carolina’s vibrant economy and significant market potential combined with economically sound and clear regulations would make Tobacco Road a ‘must-explore’ opportunity for any company in expansion mode,” said HedgeRow CEO and UNC-Chapel Hill Kenan Flagler MBA graduate Matt Walter.

“New states considering medical cannabis, like North Carolina, can take advantage of a wealth of information from existing medical cannabis programs. When properly assessed, this information can better inform how market acceptance and differing program guidelines can impact potential revenues, taxes, and market stability,” said Amy Piscopo, HR and the report’s author. “HedgeRow has gathered and analyzed existing data to inform critical business and regulatory decisions to help states create vibrant, stable and sustainable cannabis markets, while preparing retailers to compete and be successful in the market.”

In addition to top level demand and annual tax revenues, HedgeRow’s analysis found that the average urban and suburban stores would gross approximately $8 to $14 million annually, while exurban and rural stores could anticipate between $5 to $9 million in annual revenue. Revenue range will be impacted by store location, brands, customer service and business model variations.

HedgeRow’s forecast is based on the regulations in SB 3, passed in March by the State Senate. HedgeRow’s data scientists used comparative and regression analysis with a representative sample of 8 states’ medical program results. The report’s conclusions and recommendations are based on human-identified key factors and human- and AI-processed data, including: qualifying conditions, program guidelines, roll out timelines, illegal market share loss, existing population distribution by congressional district, patient counts, retailers per capita, spatial distribution and saturation predictions, and present tax rate.

Additional findings and more detailed data breakdowns can be found at or by emailing us at [email protected].

HedgeRow Analysis works with cannabis retailers from major MSOs through growing mid-market entrepreneurs to one store dispensaries. HedgeRow’s AI and tech stack innovations provide data-driven insights and cutting edge tools and techniques to help companies grow in emerging market spaces, like cannabis.